Submitted by Anonymous on Sat, 07/26/2008 - 13:56

I read yesterday that Alaska is experiencing temperatures cooler than normal this year. I think that the article was in an Anchorage newspaper. If you have internet access, you may want to read the report. Is it true? Is it just Alaska experiencing the so called cooling, or is it the entire Arctic area? If it is not true, why would something like this be printed? Are scientists in agreement or disagreement about global warming?

If, indeed, temperatures are cooler this year, why was not this change predited last year, or two years ago? How heavily should we rely on scientific weather predictions, in your opinion, for time spans greater than a week or two into the future? If it is true, what impact might this have on your research?

CJ

Guest

Hi CJ- I don't think any of us have had a chance to read that article but it doens't surprise me that this year has been cool in Anchorage. I live in New England and we had a snowy winter and the snow lasted in the mountainous areas in many cases through May. Here in Svalbard we notice that the snow on the glaciers has persisted longer this summer. Having said this I don't believe this is a long term phenomenon.
We have to recognize the difference between short term weather changes and climate, which is  the average weather. Some short term cooling trends can be related to a number of  processes, or forcings such as changes in ocean circulation, solar variability and volcanic eruptions. 
Also, the scientific community has come a long way in being able to better predict short term changes in things ranging from hurricanes to El Nino and working hard to be able to extend our view towards the longer term.
Thanks for your question
Mike Retelle